The 2030 Forecast
The following is the Introduction to "The 2030 Forecast", written by Ogilvy Consulting Global CEO Carla Hendra. Download the full report "The 2030 Forecast" here.
Let’s be honest: forecasting is always an iffy proposition, no matter who does it, how much data we analyze, and how many trends we consider. Too many variables can change the trajectory of what might seem a rock-solid conclusion. Both “known unknowns” and “unknown unknowns” pile up as time advances and can turn a forecast into a fool’s errand.
But as we looked at the years 2023-2030, we realized they will be pivotal for humanity, as we face new problems to solve and innovate to address them. Ogilvy Consulting is intrepidly bringing you our look into where the world will move by 2030 with this report.
Modern civilization will have to double down on our characteristic ingenuity and innate drive to thrive, because through our own advancement, we’ve made the world more volatile and less hospitable. At Ogilvy Consulting, we think this will change the way business is done in ways that are worth looking at critically. As more people assume economic power and the world becomes more complex, multipolar, and likely more dangerous, it remains filled with the opportunity to have impact.
Two independent strains of global thought are already colliding: tech optimism and environmental concern. The members of the church of tech promised a utopian vision of prosperity and a better life through technology, and, while that dream is incomplete, the world is vastly better because of analog and then digital revolutions. In a more instrumented and intelligent world, technology advances have enabled historic flows of people from poverty to a new middle class. Tech will continue to shift labor from humans to machines, improve health, extend lifespans, and increase the carrying capacity of the land, allowing humanity to thrive. But that process will have to take into account the people and landscapes it uses up and leaves behind, the species it exterminates, and the climate it imperils. Otherwise, it’s one step forward and two steps back—with extremely serious consequences to the planet.
It’s official: the dangers of the warming world are unmistakable. Battling this threat to civilization can only be done through collaboration, and this should bring humanity’s faith in technology and fear of its ravages together. Now we need technological innovation to be directed at environmental problems, fast, so that planet Earth remains livable. If successful, this will give rise to a new level and a new ethos of sharing, one that will drive new business structures and new goals for much of our human endeavor—taking into account both collective and individual needs. Impatience with governments is growing, and many are turning to businesses to meet the urgent needs of this new age. We hope our critical thinking on the major shifts the world faces and their implications will help you to evaluate your strategies for the future.
As always, Ogilvy Consulting is here to help you navigate, plan, and execute those new strategies.